I’ve been wanting to write a pre-season Braves blog for a while, but the roster keeps changing! Even now, just hours before the first pitch in Miami, stars like Freddie Freeman and Andrelton Simmons probably wonder who will fill out the team. I mean, they’ve just traded Craig Kimbrel!
So long, Craig Kimbrel, it was nice to know you.
Still, after a trip to spring training and catching some TV games, I have an idea of what to expect. Keep in mind that I made nine bold predictions to kick off the 2014 season. I got one of them right. That’s a .111 average. Dan Uggla and Melvin (B.J.) Upton had a better year than I did. But, they keep trying, so I will too.
1. It’s going to be a tough year for Freddie Freeman. The Braves’ best all-around hitter no longer has Evan Gattis, Brian McCann, or Justin Upton to bat behind him. For all their flaws, they were home run threats, and pitchers didn’t want to walk Freeman to get to them.
The Freddie Freeman shift: hit it to the left side, Freddie!
This year he won’t get many good pitches to hit, plus more teams are utilizing the shift against him, stacking the right side of the field. On talent alone, he’ll still be a standout, but nothing will come easy.
2. The Braves are going to win some 3-2 games. Although most of their fine 2014 pitching staff is gone, they still have some quality arms. I don’t think they’ll give up a lot of runs. That brings us to #3, and unfortunately……
3. The Braves are also going to lose a lot of 3-2 games. Because of that good pitching, I don’t think the Braves are going to get blown out often. There aren’t many high-scoring games anyway, except in Colorado, where everything’s made up and the runs don’t matter. But with an almost total lack of power, the Braves are going to have to scratch for every run. If they get behind early, look out. This isn’t a come-from-behind team.
4. Clubhouse leadership is overrated. I’ve read about 42 articles this spring emphasizing that the Braves had no leaders last year. Evidently Chipper Jones, Tim Hudson and Eric Hinske were all inspirational motivators who could make you play like your pants were on fire. Apparently, those left behind were too lackadaisical. That makes for an easy story, but I’m not buying it. Now we’re told that Jonny Gomes, A.J. Pierzynski and Jason Grilli will provide the spark needed to make their teammates want to win. Maybe they will. But isn’t that what the manager and coaches are for?
Manager Fredi Gonzalez talking with Atlanta baseball writer David O’Brien
5. Chemistry is overrated. Big league baseball isn’t all that different from high school. Look around the cafeteria sometime. The jocks sit with the other jocks, the cool crowd sits at their own table, and so do the so-called outcasts. No matter how much mingling is encouraged, kids of the same ethnic and economic backgrounds tend to huddle together. Now, watch batting practice, that relatively relaxed pre-game ritual. Just like school, the guys hang with whoever speaks their language, often literally. Talent always wins out. The history books are full of championship teams that had little or no chemistry. Those teams had talent, with guys who played winning baseball. We often think of Braves legends Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz as having great chemistry. But they were never on the field at the same time.
6. Rebuilding isn’t easy. By my count, there are 16 players on the roster who were either unwanted by their previous teams, or unwanted by any other current team. Leadership qualities and past greatness aside, it reminds me of the poster in the recent TV series “Fargo.”
Braves fans had better hope we’re right, and everybody else is wrong! Otherwise, we’re in for a rough ride in 2015 (and 2016) reminiscent of the late 1980s. The only thing entertaining about those years was Skip Caray.
New 2nd baseman Jace Peterson and utility player Phil Gosselin
7. Best case scenario: If the proven players (Freeman, Simmons, Julio Teheran) play up to their capabilities, if the new kids exceed expectations, and if the newly acquired veterans play like they did in their peak years, this team could surprise some people and win 80-82 games.
8. Worst case scenario: If one or more of those proven players suffer any long-term injuries, and if the newly acquired veterans don’t find the fountain of youth, it could get ugly. As in 65-70 wins, dangerously close to the NL East cellar.
9. Most likely scenario: Somewhere in between. Of course there will be injuries. Some guys will come out of nowhere, others will disappoint. It’s a long season, and based on what we know now, the Braves will win between 72-75 games, as they (hopefully) edge out the Phillies for last place.
10. Attendance will be down at Turner Field, in its next-to-last year of operation. Judging from the reaction to the Kimbrel trade, some fans may be bailing out already. Do you remember the old joke from the late 1980s? You’d call the ticket office and ask, “What time does the game start?” The reply: “What time can you be here?”
All eyes are on 2017: a new ballpark and hopefully a team loaded with the talented young players the Braves have obtained to re-stock their farm system. If all goes as planned, they’ll be ready for the big leagues by then. Until then, patience, my friend. Just keep repeating that word over and over. We made it through the 1980s, we can make it through this.
Where do we buy our 2015 Braves Programs online?