Braves 2016 forecast: Have we hit bottom?

Last year, my fearless 2015 Braves forecast included a prediction of 72-75 wins, edging out the Phillies for last place.  Thankfully, the Phillies were really, really bad, so even a 67 win-season was enough to keep the Braves out of the cellar.  This year, Vegas oddsmakers are predicting 66.5 wins for the Braves (I can’t wait to see that half a win).  It pains me to say this, but I think they’re about right.  Oh gloom, despair and agony on me….

Honestly, I’ll try not to be a Davy Downer here, but let’s get started:

1.  Hitting:  Here’s your ray of sunshine.  I think it will be a little better than last year.  They’ll still struggle against great pitchers (who doesn’t?), but Freddie Freeman, A.J. Pierzynski and Jace Peterson, if they stay healthy, should be as good or better than last year.  New shortstop Erick Aybar and new centerfielder Ender Inciarte are better hitters and baserunners than their predecessors, and Hector Olivera and Adonis Garcia might provide some pop.  I don’t think Nick Markakis was much of a factor last year, nor will he be this year.  His speed and power are way down from his prime, and if speedy young outfielder Mallex Smith tears up AAA as he’s expected to do, Markakis will surely be dealt away.  I’m okay with that.

2.    Pitching:  I have but one word:

Help! I have never seen a more embarrassing display of major league baseball than last year’s Braves’ second half.  Between Aug. 28 and Aug. 30, the Braves allowed 38 runs during a three-game series against the Yankees. In Game 1, as the Braves gave up 15 runs. Two days later they topped that, allowing 20 runs to cross the plate.  Between August 9 and September 17, they won 6, and lost 30.  During one stretch, they lost 19 out of 20.

I felt sorry for Fredi Gonzalez during his nightly press conferences.  What can you say when your pitchers are issuing walks with the bases loaded, when infielders are watching grounders go through their legs, and hitters are swinging wildly at 3-0 pitches in the dirt?

Anyway, here’s hoping Julio Teheran will grow into the ace position, that Mike Foltynewicz and Matt Wisler reach their potential, and Jason Grilli finds the Fountain of Youth.  Unfortunately, the pitching staff is largely made up of retreads and rejects. In fact, this is the sure sign of a rebuilding team: while the kids in the minors are developing, the major league roster is often filled with players discarded by other teams.

We all know the Braves’ minor league teams are loaded with talented prospects, especially pitchers.  Until they’re ready to come of out of the oven, the pickins are slim indeed.

3.  Defense:  Not much to brag about here.  Catching is adequate, human highlight film Andrelton Simmons is gone, and Adonis Garcia and Hector Olivera are still learning to play their positions.  Bright spots:  Inciarte will be terrific in center field, and Markakis still gets a great jump on the ball in right field.

4.  Intangibles:  Since we’ve already established this is not a World Series team, here are the items that don’t fall into neat and tidy categories.  It’s the final year at Turner Field, but will the fans turn out?  Attendance dropped 8 percent in 2014, and another 15 percent last year, almost falling below two million for the first time since 1990.  There will be promotions galore, but other than that, who will the fans pay to see? And how about those increasingly awkward games when opposing teams’ fans outnumber our own? Just keep saying to yourself, “It’s only temporary…”

Jeff Francoeur is back as a bench player, so fans who held on to his 2008-era jerseys can wear those again.  But other than Teheran and Freeman, there aren’t a lot of familiar names on the roster.  Freeman has a strong fan base, but he’s never quite reached Chipper-level frenzy.

It would be nice to see Enciarte emerge as a fan favorite.  Unlike many of the others on the 2016 roster,  I think he’ll be on the lineup card for years to come.

The 2016 Braves are not a young team.  It’s largely a group of serviceable veterans, keeping the lights on at Turner Field while “under construction” signs dot the landscape at the shiny new location several miles away. Lower your expectations for 2016, and hope the sun will come out tomorrow.

To sum it up, it’s going to be a long year.  If you don’t like the opening day roster, don’t worry.  It’s likely to be much different by August, and radically different in the next year or two.

Plus, it isn’t all bad.  We still have Jim Powell on the radio, the great Braves beat reporter Mark Bowman on MLB.com, Timothy Miller singing “God Bless America,” and the KissCam.  Play ball!